Tuesday, January 19, 2016

Conservatives to pick new leader on May 27, 2017

 #cpc #cdnpoli #cpcldr2017 #cpcldr
 It has been a long time since the CPC membership elected a leader. You'll have to go back to 2004 when Stephen Harper won the race, making this particular election 13 years since.  No different, really, then when Paul Martin took the reigns from Jean Chretien.

During Harper's time, the Liberals had six leaders:

  1. Paul Martin (elected) - Prime Minister
  2. Bill Graham (interim)
  3. Stephane Dion (elected)
  4. Michael Ignatieff (elected)
  5. Bob Rae (interim)
  6. Justin Trudeau (elected) - Prime Minister

Again, no different, really, than what Chretien faced against six different conservative opposition leaders:

  1. Preston Manning (Reform, elected)
  2. Deborah Grey (Canadian Alliance, interim)
  3. Stockwell Day (Canadian Alliance, elected)
  4. John Reynolds (Canadian Alliance, interim)
  5. Stephen Harper (Canadian Alliance, elected)
  6. Grant Hill (Canadian Alliance, interim)
    Stephen Harper (Conservative, elected) - Prime Minister

For this new race, the feelers have been sent out.  With 16 months, that gives any hopeful enough time to build interest and momentum, fundraise, organize a national campaign team in every major city and region, and campaign.

However, if we are to consider the above pattern of opposition leaders, we could surmise, whomever wins this race, would not become prime minister, but would lose the next election in four years, spurring a new race, then again that leader not winning.  It would theoretically be on the third elected leader who would have a chance at becoming prime minister.

That is not to say those who are interested should make a run for it now to get their name out there and the beginnings of a very long-term campaign organization.

But to think that Trudeau is a one-term prime minister, for a Conservative, is overly optimistic.  The NDP leadership is in a vacuum and Trudeau will continue to pull from the left.   Further, Chretien and Harper won three elections with their party remaining in power for about 13 years.  It is not unreasonable to think history won't repeat itself and we'll see the following.

2017:  Elected Leader 1
2019:  Election loss
2019:  Elected Leader 1 steps down.  Interim leader chosen.
2021:  Elected Leader 2
2023:  Election loss
2023:  Elected Leader 2 steps down.  Interim leader chosen.
2025:  Elected Leader 3
2027:  Election WIN

What would be telling, and different is if the 2019 and/or 2023 elections had a minority government.  Then it's difficult to say how the rest of the pattern works out, because remember, Harper lost his first election to Martin, although Martin won with a minority.  Harper then won a minority.  This was a long transition period for Canadians to move from Liberal dominance to a newly merged Conservative Party.

My point is, whoever is running to be leader now or later, has to play the long game, as Stephen Harper was so brilliant to achieve for his electoral success.

Monday, January 18, 2016

The Conservative leadership thingy

#cpc #cdnpoli

It's been about three months since we looked at the Conservative Party leadership race thingy.  You could say there isn't much happening other than feelers, and to be honest, I'm not feeling much here.

Let's review where the potential candidates are.

Previous cabinet ministers and current MPs (in alphabetical order):

  • Rona Ambrose - Alberta -- She's the current interim leader and doing a good job as opposition leader, but has declined to run.
  • Michael Chong - Ontario -- Not hearing much here.
  • Tony Clement - Ontario -- Hearing a little more from this guy.
  • Jason Kenney - Alberta -- I'm not hearing anything, but I'm not really paying attention to him.
  • Kellie Leitch - Ontario -- Nope. Nothing.
  • Rob Nicholson - Ontario -- Yeah, I dunno.  
  • Pierre Poilievre - Ontario -- Haven't really heard anything.
  • Lisa Raitt - Ontario -- A little bit, but not much.
  • Michelle Rempel - Alberta -- I'm hearing a lot from her and she's currently impressing me with her social media communication and outreach

Past cabinet ministers and past MPs:

  • John Baird - Ontario -- He looked like he was about to hop in, but then he didn't.
  • Maxime Bernier - Quebec -- This guy is definitely running and could win. He's currently on a speaking tour everywhere.
  • Peter MacKay - Nova Scotia -- There are rumblings and it seems likely he'll jump back in.
  • James Moore - British Columbia -- I'm not sure.  I think he'll try, but he won't get too far.
  • Brian Pallister - Manitoba -- He's busy provincially.
  • Preston Manning - Alberta -- Some have mentioned to me that he could make a come back.  I don't think he really wants to.

Past premiers / past federal leaders:

  • Jean Charest - Quebec -- Declined.
  • Bernard Lord - New Brunswick -- Declined.
Current premiers:
  • Christy Clark - British Columbia -- Too busy in B.C.
  • Brad Wall - Saskatchewan -- Says he's too busy in Sask, but he could declare after the upcoming Sask election, which he'll win, so that doesn't look good jumping out of there unless he's made out to be some sort of saviour.


  • Doug Ford - Toronto city councillor -- Please don't.
Mulroney's children:
  • Ben -- ?
  • Caroline -- declined
  • Mark -- declined
  • Kevin O'Leary - Ontario businessman -- There are now very strong rumblings all over that he's going to "trump" all the others.  Please.
To re-list the likely contenders in the order I think they would garner support over time.
  1. Peter Mackay - he currently leads the few polls out there by a wide margin. 
  2. Jason Kenney
  3. Maxime Bernier
  4. Michelle Rempel
  5. Lisa Raitt
  6. Tony Clement
  7. Kevin O'Leary
  8. Doug Ford
  9. Kellie Leitch
For me, the three candidates I would consider are:
  • Peter Mackay - he helped create the party, was a good minister, is smart, capable, charismatic, well-known, deep party roots
  • Maxime Bernier - a bit of an outsider, but has a solid libertarian-conservative vision, is charismatic
  • Michelle Rempel - well-liked, capable, charismatic, and becoming more and more well-known 
Some of the ideas I want to hear:
  • Energy:  Energy East Pipeline needs to happen.  The East needs to depend less on foreign oil and more on Alberta/Sask.  The U.S. is doing it under Obama. Why aren't we?
  • Economy:  Make Canada a friendly place to invest for business and individuals again, especially for Canadians within the country.
  • Taxes:  Restore TFSA limit to $10k as it actually does help lower and middle class folks invest for the future.  Continue to reduce the income tax rates.
  • Transportation:  HIGH-SPEED RAIL.  People said the trans-national railway in the late 19th century couldn't be built but it was, and it united the country coast to coast.  No reason we can't do it again and make travelling this great country affordable without flying over most parts of it.
That's all for now.  Who do you think of the folks I listed above would be the best choice as leader and prime minister?